Though the election is still over a year away, the political campaigns are already starting. A main topic in the speeches of every candidate is the Iraq War. Most of the Republicans want to stay in Iraq until the job is “done” — whatever they mean by that — and most of the Democrats want to end the war.
At the beginning of the Iraq War, I was supportive of the effort. This was due to an apathy towards politics and a de facto position of Republicanism. However, I have since become interested in politics and drastically changed my views, including my view of the war. My thoughts on foreign policy have changed — if you can say I had a view of foreign policy when I called myself a Republican. I am now a staunch non-interventionist, and I am discomforted by the neo-conservatives’ hawkish attitude.
It is probably obvious now that I support withdrawing the troops from Iraq. However, I am still open-minded about the war, and I enjoy listening to its supporters explain why we should stay in Iraq. However, two reasons that are often given do not convince me. The first reason is that if we leave Iraq, our enemies will become emboldened and attack us on our own soil. My main problem with this argument is that the people who use it seem to ignore the many other ways an enemy can become emboldened. Winning might embolden a person, but impending defeat can also embolden a person, especially people who are not afraid to die. Judging by the prevalence of suicide bombings, our enemy is not afraid to die. Continuing to fight them, even if we win, can cause them to fight more tenaciously and desperately. Of course, the more desperate they get, the more likely they are to use terrorist tactics in our country.
Imagine if England had not pulled troops out of the colonies to end the Revolutionary War. (Perhaps their statesmen were arguing that if England left America the colonists would eventually attack England.)Do you think the colonists would have given up? Or would they have fought harder? I am not claiming that the terrorists are as noble as the colonists, or that they are fighting for a just cause. I simply want to show that there is a chance that staying in Iraq will embolden the enemy as much as, if not more than, leaving Iraq.
In other words, those who argue that leaving Iraq would be detrimental to Americans’ safety because the enemy would be emboldened have to show that staying in Iraq will not embolden the terrorists more than leaving Iraq.
Second, some people argue that we should not leave Iraq because, if we do, the region will be left in chaos. First, there is no guarantee that staying in Iraq can produce order, and there is no guarantee that leaving Iraq would spawn disorder. If you disturb a beehive, leaving will produce order, while staying will produce more disorder. Sometimes you cannot forcibly create order, and sometimes doing nothing creates more order than doing something.
This leads me to my second problem with the “Chaos Argument.” Social orders are very complex. Despite their claims, politicians do not know how to create order in a society. Government intervention in a social order, despite the good intentions, often creates chaos. A society is not an easy thing to put together. It is not a mechanical object that one simply has to put the parts back in place for it to work; it is organic entity that often takes time for order to evolve. So, those who use the Chaos Argument need to show that their assumption — staying in Iraq is the best way to produce order — is a good assumption. Too often, this is taken for granted in their rhetoric. (A good book to read on the trouble with government intervention in society is the first volume of F. A. Hayek’s Law, Legislation, and Liberty.)
So, in summary, those who use these two arguments to show that we need to stay in Iraq need to justify these two assumptions:
- Staying in Iraq will not provoke the enemy to attack our homeland more than leaving Iraq will provoke them.
- Staying in Iraq will produce order in Iraq than leaving it.